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Pivot
Heisenberg Macro The moves in central bank pricing and risk assets in a month in which Fed delivered its second consecutive 75bp hike and ECB hiked 50bp…
Aug 3, 2022
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Pivot
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July 2022
The Hedgehog and the Fox
Heisenberg Macro The Greek poet Archilochus wrote a parable with the moral - "The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing." The…
Jul 13, 2022
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The Hedgehog and the Fox
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June 2022
Serenity Now
Heisenberg Macro As I hear Larry Summers or Bill Dudley who sound befuddled about the Fed's failure to recognize the risks to higher inflation, the…
Jun 30, 2022
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Serenity Now
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Trophic Cascade
Heisenberg Macro Science in school is so much more fascinating than I ever remembered it to be. Or perhaps I'm just a late bloomer when it comes to…
Jun 23, 2022
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Trophic Cascade
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Structured Criticality
Heisenberg Macro As I think about FOMC yet again abandoning the plan it laid out a few weeks ago to escalate the hiking cycle to front load 75bp and the…
Jun 17, 2022
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Structured Criticality
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Much Ado About Neutral
Heisenberg Macro Here we are - yet another high NFP and CPI print - and clamors of Fed not being hawkish enough are followed up with a WSJ article of…
Jun 14, 2022
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Much Ado About Neutral
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Peloton of Hikers
Heisenberg Macro In a road bicycle race, the peloton is the main group or pack of bikers. Bikers in a group save energy by riding close to other riders…
Jun 9, 2022
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Peloton of Hikers
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Newton's Laws of Central Banking
Heisenberg Macro No one needs a reminder on fifth grade physics but at the risk of sounding redundant, Newton's three laws of motion are - Law 1: A body…
Jun 5, 2022
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Newton's Laws of Central Banking
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May 2022
Tic Tac Toe
Heisenberg Macro The Fed reaction function can be visualized by mapping the 3 variables - unemployment rate, core inflation and policy rate relative to…
May 23, 2022
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Tic Tac Toe
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Measured Pace 2 - 'Expeditiously'
Heisenberg Macro The iconic race scene from Fast and Furious characterizes how the market is perceives the the Fed meeting today with some convinced…
May 4, 2022
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Measured Pace 2 - 'Expeditiously'
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April 2022
Are We There Yet?
Heisenberg Macro The echoes of "peak hawkishness" have been around since the January Fed meeting. However, the Fed rhetoric has continued to ratchet up…
Apr 29, 2022
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Are We There Yet?
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Cuts Both Ways
Heisenberg Macro As the Fed is on the verge of embarking reducing the balance sheet i.e. Quantitative Tightening, the song by Gloria Estefan, the three…
Apr 26, 2022
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Cuts Both Ways
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